2022 FIFA World Cup?

Why Australia is poised to win 2022 World Cup
Ray Gatt From: The Australian November 27, 2010 12:00AM
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THE FFA's strategy in targeting second votes is the key to success.

SYDNEY shocked the world when it was awarded the 2000 Olympics and now Australia is on the brink of another coup by winning the right to host the World Cup finals in 2022.

According to a detailed analysis of the likely voting patterns provided to The Weekend Australian by several experts well versed in the political machinations of the sport's ruling body, FIFA, Australia will upset the United States and Qatar to claim the prize.

Despite being a decided underdog, the analysts are adamant FIFA boss Sepp Blatter will declare Australia in the early hours of Friday morning (AEDT). It's a decision worth possibly $6 billion to the Australian economy.

However, Australia - which has poured $45.6 million into its World Cup bid - has to negotiate a voting minefield that is FIFA's 22-man Executive Committee (ExCo). The largely anonymous group of men will meet in Zurich on December 2 to vote on the hosts for 2018 and 2022.


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In what have been highly intriguing and controversial contests, England, Portugal-Spain, Russia and Belgium-Holland are fighting it out for 2018 while Australia is in a five-way battle that also involves pre-vote favourite Qatar, the United States, Japan and South Korea.

As is so often the case in the explosive and continually shifting world of FIFA politics, nothing is ever straightforward.

The bidding contests have already been shrouded in mystery and high drama over allegations of vote-buying and collusion as revealed by a London Sunday Times sting that ended with ExCo members Reynald Temarii and Amos Adamu being suspended for one year and three years respectively.

That has reduced the ExCo voting numbers from 24 to 22, which means the winning bid will need a clear majority of 12 votes.

The voting process could take as few as one round or as many as five or six. A winner will be declared if it receives 12 or more votes. If that doesn't happen in the first round, the country with the lowest vote in each round is eliminated.

Interestingly, both experts contacted by The Weekend Australian predict Australia can win the vote in four rounds.

It is believed Australia can win based on being at least the second choice pick for every ExCo delegate.

The strategy has been likened to Steven Bradbury's last-to-first gold medal wIn in the speed skating final at the 2002 Winter Olympics, when the entire field fell in front of him and he skated past the winning post on his own.

The loss of Oceania representative Temarii's guaranteed vote does not help Australia's cause, but the two FIFA experts don't believe it will impact greatly on its chances because if Australia is to win, it will likely hit the front in the last round of voting.

"The key, obviously, is to survive the first round," one expert told The Australian. "I don't think it will have too much trouble getting past the early stages.

"I see South Korea then Japan falling in the first two rounds, leaving it pretty much to the three countries most people expect to fight it out - Australia, Qatar and the US.

"The thing is, the Australian bid team has been doing its work well. It has been a great strategy to target the second votes."

He believes Australia will fight it out with the US in the final round and will triumph 14 votes to 8, while the second expert predicts Australia will fall just short with 10 votes in the third round before picking up another three in the last round to beat the US 13-9.

The second expert praised Australia's low-key approach - something that might well win favour with many on the ExCo.

"They have sat back and let the other countries attack each other," he said. "They have clearly avoided any foot-in-the-mouth moments."

Australia's bid has not been without its moments, however, as concerns were raised over financial irregularities, lack of support from the AFL and NRL and the involvement of highly paid lobbyists Peter Hargitay, Andreas Abold and Fedor Radmann.

Respected English journalist Nick Harris, the chief sports-news correspondent of the Mail on Sunday and owner and editor of www.sportingintelligence.com, believes the race for 2018 and 2022 will get down to last-minute "deals in smoky rooms".

Harris fears there has been some collusion among bidding nations and is concerned about its impact on voting for 2018 and 2022. "Conspiracy theories are running amok in Europe," Harris said. "How it will affect the voting I truly don't know.

"In terms of 2022, Australia has a lot going for it. It is a great sporting nation and I'm sure the bid is technically fine.

"There wouldn't be any big hiccups and the time zone is OK for Asia, a continent of growing importance to FIFA.

"The USA obviously appeals because of the financial aspect, but I am worried that Qatar will get through, and that would be an insane option."